欧冠杯下注

2019年两会房地产核心 稳 房地产税、房地产调控等8大要点

2019-03-11

YI:DUI2018NIANZHIQIANFANGDICHANXIANGGUANGONGZUODEZONGJIE

JIANCHIBUGAO“DASHUIMANGUAN”SHIQIANGCIJI,BAOCHIHONGGUANZHENGCELIANXUXINGWENDINGXING,ZAIQUJIANDIAOKONGJICHUSHANGJIAQIANGDINGXIANG、XIANGJIDIAOKONG,ZHUDONGYUDIAO、WEIDIAO。JIANCHISHISHIJIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCE,ZHELIJIANSHUIJIANGFEI,GAIGEWANSHANFANGDICHANSHICHANGDIAOKONGJIZHI。PENGHUQUZHUFANGGAIZAO620DUOWANTAO,NONGCUNWEIFANGGAIZAO190WANHU。

中原地产首席分析师张大伟分析认为:

XIANGBI2018NIANZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOMINGQUETIJI:

2019NIANLIANGHUIZONGJIEGONGZUOZHONG,TIJIFANGDICHANHENSHAO,ZHIYOUPENGHUQUGAIZAO620WANTAO,WANSHANFANGDICHANDIAOKONGJIZHIDENGJIANDANGAISHU。ZAI2018NIANDEJIHUAZHONG,PENGHUQUKAIGONG580WANTAO。

WANSHANFANGDICHANDIAOKONGJIZHIYEZHUYAOXIANGDUIDESHIDANGXIAFANGDICHANSHICHANGDE“YICHENGYICE”。

CHIXU3NIANDEYICHENGYICEJIXUJIAQIANGMINGQUE。

2018NIANKEYISHUOSHIZHONGGUOFANGDICHANDIAOKONGLISHISHANGDIAOKONGZHENGCECHUTAIZUIPINFANDENIANDU,QUANGUOGEDIZAI10YUEQIANPINFANSHENGJIDIAOKONGZHENGCE,XIANGOU、XIANJIA、XIANDAI。XIANSHANG、XIANSHOU,DUOZHONGXIANZHIXIA,FANGDICHANSHICHANGCONGZHIQIANDEGAOWENZHUJIANTUISHAO。

FANGDICHANSHICHANGCONGGUOQUSHIJINIANDEDIAOKONGLISHIKAN,ZUIHEXINDEFANGDICHANZHENGCESHIXINDAIZHENGCE,ZHENDUIDUOTAOFANGDEXINDAIXIANDAIZHENGCESHIBUSHISHOUJINJUEDINGLELOUSHIZHENGCEDELIDU,ZAIGUOQUKUANSONGZHOUQI,RENFANGBURENDAI,HUOZHEPUBIANXINGDEBUYUESHUDUOTAOFANGDAIKUAN,SHIDESHICHANGGANGGANLVGUOGAO。

ERZAI2018NIANDAOXIANZAIJIBENSUOYOUREDIANCHENGSHIDOUZHIXINGLEYANGEDERENFANGYOURENDAI,ERQIEDABUFENERTAOFANGDAIKUANSHOUFUDOUZAI60%YISHANG,ZHEISHIDESHICHANGCHUXIANLETUISHAOJIANGWEN。

2019年房地产工作预期解析

1:WENBUTUIJINFANGDICHANSHUI,2018NIANSHIWENTUOTUIJIN。

WENBUSHIZHIYOUBAWODIANYIDINGBUZHOUJINXING,WENTUO,WENDANGKEKAODEYISI。

LIANGGECIDEDUIBIHENDACHENGDUSHANG,SHIDAIBIAOFANGDICHANSHUIZHUJIANJINRUZHIDINGCHENGXUZHONG。DANFANGDICHANSHUILUODIDESUDUYUQIZAIJIAKUAI,FANGDICHANSHUISHIYIGEZONGHEXINGGAINIANYIQIEYUFANGDICHANJINGJIYUNXINGGUOCHENGYOUZHIJIEGUANXIDESHUIDOUSHUYUFANGDICHANSHUI。ZAIWOGUOBAOKUOFANGDICHANYEYINGYESHUI、QIYESUODESHUI、GERENSUODESHUI、FANGCHANSHUI、CHENGZHENTUDISHIYONGSHUI、CHENGSHIFANGDICHANSHUI、YINHUASHUI、TUDIZENGZHISHUI、QISHUI、GENGDIZHANYONGSHUIDENG。ZHEIYEYIWEIZHEHENDUORENSHUODE“FANGCHANSHUI”QISHISHI“FANGDICHANSHUI”DEYIGEZUCHENGBUFEN。

GUOQUJINIAN,FANGDICHANDIAOKONGYUWANGNIANCHUXIANLEMINGXIANZHIBIAN。GEZHONGFANGDICHANDIAOKONGCONGGUOQUDEXIANWEIDAIBIAODEDUANXIAOJIZHIXIANGZHANGXIAOJIZHIZHUANBIAN。

DANZHUYILEWENBUTUIJINXIADEFANGCHANSHUI,HAIXUYAOYIDINGSHIJIAN。LIFAGUOCHENGJIAOZHANG,3NIANNEILUODIKENENGXINGBUDA,FANGDICHANSHUIMUQIANZAIJIJIZHUNBEICAOANJIEDUAN,DUANQICHUTAIKENENGXINGBUDA。

2: SHENRUTUIJINXINXINGCHENGZHENHUA

XINXINGCHENGZHENHUA:SHIYICHENGXIANGTONGCHOU、CHENGXIANGYITI、CHANYEHUDONG、JIEYUEJIYUE、SHENGTAIYIJU、HEXIEFAZHANWEIJIBENTEZHENGDECHENGZHENHUA,SHIDAZHONGXIAOCHENGSHI、XIAOCHENGZHEN、XINXINGNONGCUNSHEQUXIEDIAOFAZHAN、HUCUGONGJINDECHENGZHENHUA。

QUNIANQUANGUODECHENGZHENLVZHIBIAOJIXUZENGZHANG:2018NIANMOQUANGUOCHANGZHURENKOUCHENGZHENHUALVWEI59.58%,HUJIRENKOUCHENGZHENHUALVWEI43.37%,FENBIEBISHANGYINIANTISHENGLE1.06、1.02GEBAIFENDIAN。

YIJINGFEICHANGJIEJIN《GUOJIAXINXINGCHENGZHENHUAGUIHUA(2014—2020NIAN)》ZHONGTICHUDEDAO2020NIAN,CHANGZHURENKOUCHENGZHENHUALVDADAO60%ZUOYOU,HUJIRENKOUCHENGZHENHUALVDADAO45%ZUOYOUDEMUBIAO。

WEILAI2NIAN,ZHONGGUOCHENGZHENHUASUDUYIRANHUIJIAKUAI。

3:JIANCHIYIZHONGXINCHENGSHIYINLINGCHENGSHIQUNFAZHAN

JINGJIFAZHANYUCHENGSHIFAZHANDEQUSHIDOUBIRANSHIDACHENGSHIQUANFAZHAN,CONGZHONGGUOKAN,JIDACHENGSHIQUANYIJINGJIBENXINGCHENG,TEBIESHIJINGJINJI、ZHANGSANJIAO、ZHUSANJIAO。ZHEIXIECHENGSHIDOUFEICHANGYOUHUOLI。

CONGFANGDICHANJIAODUKAN,GUOQUDESANNIAN,ZHEIXIEQUYUDOUYIJINGJIANLILECHUBUDEFANGDICHANDIAOKONGXIETONGJIZHI,ZUIDIANXINGDEBIRUBEIJINGYUZHOUWEIDEHUANJING。JIBENSHIXIANLEFANGDICHANDIAOKONGDEXIETONG。

2010NIAN2YUE,ZHUFANGHECHENGXIANGJIANSHEBUFABUDE《QUANGUOCHENGZHENTIXIGUIHUA(2010—2020NIAN)》MINGQUETICHUWUDAGUOJIAZHONGXINCHENGSHI(BEIJING、TIANJIN、SHANGHAI、GUANGZHOU、ZHONGQING)DEGUIHUAHEDINGWEI;2016NIAN5YUEZHI2018NIAN2YUE,GUOJIAFAZHANHEGAIGEWEIYUANHUIJIZHUFANGHECHENGXIANGJIANSHEBUXIANHOUFAHANZHICHICHENGDOU、WUHAN、ZHENGZHOU、XIANJIANSHEGUOJIAZHONGXINCHENGSHI。

WEILAIFANGDICHANSHICHANGFAZHANDEHEXINQUYUYEBIRANSHIZHEIXIEREDIANCHENGSHI。LINGWAIWEIRAOZHEIXIECHENGSHIDEHEXINCHENGSHIQUAN、CHENGSHIQUNYESHIJINGJIFAZHAN、RENKOULIURUDEHEXINQUYU。

4:ZHUAHAONONGYEZHUANYIRENKOULUOHU,TUIDONGCHENGZHENJIBENGONGGONGFUWUFUGAICHANGZHURENKOU。GENGHAOJIEJUEQUNZHONGZHUFANGWENTI。

NONGYEZHUANYIRENKOUSHIMINHUAWENTI,2020NIANTUIDONG1YIFEIHUJIRENKOUZAICHENGSHILUOHU,ZHENGCEXIANHOUCHUTAISHISHILEYIXILIEPEITAOJUCUO。

GEDICHENGSHIXIYINRENCAIZHENGCECENGCHUBUQIONG,JIN2019NIANLAIJIUYIJINGCHAOGUO20GECHENGSHIFABUXIYINRENCAIZHENGCE。

HUJIZHIDUGAIGEQUANMIANLUODI,31GESHENG(QU、SHI)JIXINJIANGSHENGCHANJIANSHEBINGTUANYIQUANBUCHUTAIHUJIZHIDUGAIGEFANGANHUOYIJIAN,DADUOSHUCHENGSHIYIJINGFANGKAIFANGKUANLUOHUXIANZHI,XUDUOZHONGXIAOCHENGSHIJIBENSHIXIANLUOHULINGMENJIAN,NONGYEZHUANYIRENKOUSHIMINHUAZHIDUXINGTONGDAOQUANMIANDATONG。

CHENGZHENJIBENGONGGONGFUWUJIAKUAIFUGAICHANGZHURENKOU,QUANGUOSUOYOUCHENGSHIHEXIANJUNYIFAFANGJUZHUZHENG,YIJUZHUZHENGWEIZAITIDECHENGZHENJIBENGONGGONGFUWUTIGONGJIZHIJIBENJIANLI。

5:LUOSHICHENGSHIZHUTIZEREN,GAIGEWANSHANZHUFANGSHICHANGTIXIHEBAOZHANGTIXI,CUJINFANGDICHANSHICHANGPINGWENJIANKANGFAZHAN。

CONGFANGDICHANFAZHANKAN,ZHUTIZERENNEIRONGHEXINSHIWENDIJIAWENFANGJIAWENYUQI。CONG2018NIANNIANZHONGMINGQUEDE“WENDIJIA、WENFANGJIA、WENYUQI”DEQUANMIANDIAOKONGYAOQIU,DUIDIAOKONGBULIDECHENGSHIJIXUWENZE。

WENDINGQISHISHISHUANGXIANGDIAOJIE,DAZHANGKENDINGBUSHIWENDING,DANBAODIEYETONGYANGBUSHIWENDING。

WEILAIFANGDICHANDIAOKONGJIANGYIDIFANGZHUDAO,ZHUJIANBUYUZHONGYANGZHIDAODEWEIZHU。WEILAIBUPAICHUYOUBUFENCHENGSHIZHENGCEDIAOZHENG,DANDIFANGZHUTIZERENYAOQIUFANGDICHANSHICHANGPINGWENDEDAYUANZEBUBIAN。

6:JIXUTUIJINBAOZHANGXINGFAZHUFANGJIANSHEHECHENGZHENPENGHUQUGAIZAO,BAOZHENGKUNNANQUNZHONGJIBENJUZHUXUQIU。

CONGQUANGUOKUCUNKAN,FANGDICHANSHICHANGYIJINGJIBENGAOBIEKUCUNJIYASHIDAI,DANGXIALOUSHIKUCUNDANGQIANFANGDICHANQUKUCUNRENWUCHUBUWANCHENG,YI、ER、SAN、SIXIANCHENGSHISHANGPINFANGKUCUNQUHUAYISHIFENCHONGFEN,HENDUOCHENGSHIQUHUAZHOUQIJUNZAI12GEYUEYIXIA。

BIXUMINGQUEDESHI,PENGGAIDESHULIANGJIANGJIANSHAO,ZHEIYIJINGSHI2018NIANDEZHENGCEYAOQIU,LINGWAIHUOBIHUAANZHIDEZHUJIANSHOUJINYEYIJINGSHIQUSHI。DANYIDAOQIEDEKENENGXINGBUCUNZAI。

7:WEITIFANGZHUBUCHAO

GUOQUJINIANSHICHANGZUIGUANZHUDEFANGDICHANDIAOKONGYUANZESHIFANGZHUBUCHAO,ZAIZHUJIANBUGONGZUOHUIYITIJI,JINNIANDELIANGHUIGONGZUOBAOGAOWEITIJIFANGZHUBUCHAO,ZHITIJILECUJINFANGDICHANSHICHANGPINGWENJIANKANGFAZHAN。

DAIBIAOLEQUANGUOFANGDICHANDEDIAOKONGLIDUJIANGYIRANWEICHIZHIQIANDEGAOWENZHUANGTAI。SUIRANZUIJINCHUXIANLEBUFENCHENGSHIDEWEIDIAO,DANSHIZHENGTIKAN,JIBENYUANZEYIRANBUHUIGAIBIAN。ZHONGYANGEZHIFANGJIASHANGZHANGDEJUEXINBUHUIFASHENGGAIBIAN。CONGZHENGCEJIAODUKAN,BENLUNFANGDICHANZHENGCEZUIYANGEDEJIEDUANGUOQU,FANGJIAPINGWENCHENGSHIFANGDICHANDIAOKONGCHUXIANQINGWEISONGBANGDEQUSHIJIANGZAI2019NIANCHIXU。

8:TUIGUANGNONGCUNTUDIZHENGSHOU、JITIJINGYINGXINGJIANSHEYONGDIRUSHI、ZHAIJIDIZHIDUGAIGESHIDIANCHENGGUO。

CONGQUSHIKAN,NONGCUNTUDIDEJIAZHIJIANGTIGAO,DANMUQIANYIRANSHISHIYONGQUANDEBIANHUA,DUANQIKAN,CHANQUANGAIBIANDUANQIKENENGXINGBUDA。